Is 3% Coming Back? Here’s the Real Talk on Today’s Mortgage Rates

There’s been a lot of waiting lately.

Waiting for rates to drop.

Waiting for more inventory.

Waiting for “the right time.”

And one of the biggest reasons many buyers are sitting on the sidelines right now? They’re holding out hope that mortgage rates will somehow fall back to the historic lows of 2020 and 2021 those dreamy 3% levels that gave buyers unprecedented buying power.

But here’s the truth: those rates were never meant to stick around.

They were a direct response to a global crisis, a once-in-a-century event that led the Federal Reserve to enact emergency economic measures to stabilize the housing market and stimulate the economy. It worked, but that environment was temporary.


What’s Happening With Rates Today?

Fast forward to now, and things look very different. Rates have normalized, landing in the high 6% to low 7% range. Yes, that’s higher than the pandemic lows. But it’s important to keep perspective: historically, this is still below the 50-year average of around 7.75%.

More importantly, these current rates reflect an economy that’s regaining balance. One with stronger employment, more consumer activity, and inflation still being tamed.

Will rates go lower? Possibly. Most experts predict we’ll see a slow, bumpy slide down to the mid-6% range by the end of the year.

Zillow’s Senior Economist Kara Ng says:
“While Zillow expects mortgage rates to end the year near mid-6%, barring any unforeseen shocks, that path might be bumpy.”

But a return to 3%? Highly unlikely, and waiting for that could mean missing some major opportunities.


What You Should Focus On Instead?

Here’s what I tell buyers all the time: stop trying to time the market perfectly. No one can. Instead, take control of what you can influence:

• Your budget – Know your numbers and what monthly payment works for your lifestyle.

• Your credit and finances – Better credit = better rate options.

• Your buying strategy – There are creative solutions that can help you buy even in a higher-rate environment.

From permanent and temporary rate buydowns, to builder incentives, seller concessions, and down payment assistance programs, there are more tools in the toolbox than most people realize. You just need a team that knows how to use them.


Why Now May Be a Smart Time to Buy?

Inventory is rising. More homes are hitting the market, and competition is more manageable than we’ve seen in years. This gives you more options and more negotiating power. But if rates drop—even a little—it could trigger a flood of pent-up buyer demand. Think bidding wars, tight timelines, and pressure to act fast. In other words, we’ll be back to the kind of market that makes buyers feel like they’re playing catch-up.

That’s why getting in ahead of that shift can be a smart move.

As Realtor.com put it: 
“Staying out of the market in hopes of a rate drop that never comes can lead to missed opportunities… Rising home prices, rent increases, and inflation might outpace any future savings on interest. And if rates do fall sharply again, buyers could face an entirely different challenge: surging competition.”


Let’s Talk Strategy

At the end of the day, this isn’t about chasing a rate, it’s about achieving your goals. Whether it’s owning your first home, upsizing for your growing family, or locking in a long-term investment, the right move is the one that works for your life and your timeline.

I’m here to help you sort through the noise, understand your options, and connect you with a trusted lender who will explore every angle with you—from monthly payments to pre-approval to future refinance strategies.

Because here’s one more thing: you can always refinance later if rates come down. But you can’t rewind time and go back to snag the right home once someone else has bought it.


The Bottom Line

Those 3% mortgage rates weren’t the norm, they were the exception. Now that rates are finding a new baseline, it’s time to adjust your expectations and build a plan around what the market is, not what we all wish it was.

If you’re ready to stop waiting and start strategizing, I’d be honored to help.